Responses to the December issue of the AOAI Newsletter

[Peter Miller]

Hi All,

I hope that you have had a chance to read the latest issue of the AOAI E-Newsletter. If not, you can find it here.

Please comment on your thoughts regarding the future of the collector car hobby. Where do you think we are going with alternative fuels, and will the next generation of car collectors share our current interests in use and preservation?

Take care, and Happy New Year.

Peter Miller

[Twnchgr]

Hi All,

I hope that you have had a chance to read the latest issue of the AOAI E-Newsletter. If not, you can find it here.

Please comment on your thoughts regarding the future of the collector car hobby. Where do you think we are going with alternative fuels, and will the next generation of car collectors share our current interests in use and preservation?

Take care, and Happy New Year.

Peter Miller

Hi Peter,

Enjoyed reading your newsletter. Keep up the good work.

Karl

[Gunslinger]

You give a lot to think about and discuss, and only down the road will we be able to say what opinions were right and prophetic, which were off-base or a non-issue at all. My own feeling is the hobby will change and evolve...it always has...maybe in ways we'll approve of and also in ways we don't. Generational shifts are already, in my opinion, taking place in the hobby...and that doesn't even take into account different attitudes and subcultures with our own generation of the car culture (purists vs. non-purists).

I realize we want to focus primarily upon the Avanti, whether Studebaker or post-Studebaker, as after all, it's what we're here for. But...the entire hobby is being affected by so many different forces...market forces, which left to itself will naturally make changes in the hobby. Then there's external forces, such as governmental regulations, that necessarily affect the hobby, or insurance companies that have their own effects, etc.

The free market, fairly or unfairly, makes its own determination of what is valuable to collectors. It's the buying and collecting public which makes up the free market, and it speaks loudly and clearly. In the case of the Avanti, our favorite car has everything going for it...design and design pedigree (by the father of Industrial Design, Raymond Loewy), rarity, as it was never produced in large numbers, performance, exclusivity...but the free market has decided that the Avanti doesn't have much value compared to cars such as Corvettes, Mustangs, Hemi's, Cobra's, etc. Like it or not, that's the fact of the matter. That can work for or against us as Avanti aficionados...less expensive to buy if you're looking for one, little return on the dollar if you're selling one. I'm not talking about the very few R3's or other special cars...they're too few to make a difference in an overall sense...and even then, it still takes an Avanti guy to want to own one of those. If a high profile motion picture or television show were to be made which showed an Avanti in a high profile, major way, it could go far in changing demand for our favorite car and its market value.

What is working against us as far as Avanti owners, is the cost to rebuild, restore, modify, etc., an Avanti is usually all out of proportion to its market value when completed. It's generally a bad financial proposition to restore an Avanti with so little prospect of recovering your money. For all intents and purposes, we don't do it out of a financial aspect, but for the love of the car.

Generationally, it seems that we want the cars of our youth...whether it’s cars we actually owned and disposed of as we matured, married and had families, or cars we lusted after and couldn’t own for much the same reasons. At our age now we, as a generation, have raised our children, accumulated some wealth and after having practiced delayed gratification and sacrifice for our families, now want what we had or or never had during our youth. I believe that’s why today’s youth have little affection for cars beyond what they’re familiar with...the tuner cars, rice-rockets, whatever you want to call them. Our parent’s generation had desires for Model A’s, etc.

A close friend owns two ‘57 Chevy Bel Airs...one a resto-mod that is a beautiful driving car, plus an absolutely magnificent Bel Air convertible that has won many awards for correctness and originality. He’s been thinking about selling that car as he sees the generation that values them is dying off or selling their own and prices are dropping. He sees the market heading towards modified cars and original cars aren’t being valued like they once were. Values are high enough that potential owners would rather buy a non-original car and make it what they want.

We’ve faced many external changes to the hobby...governmental regulations and we’ve done OK overall. The change to unleaded gasoline hasn’t really proven to hurt our cars as predicted back in the day. Lots of cars from the leaded era have never had engine rebuilds and are doing fine. The same goes for the reduction in ZDDP levels in motor oils...we’ve learned to adapt at little cost or it’s been a non-issue in retrospect, though it seems high performance engines are at a higher risk of problems.

Alcohol in gasoline has caused some issues but again, we’ve adapted. Future increases in alcohol may well prove more troublesome to overcome, but again...wait and see. The EPA does not have collector cars in mind when mandating such changes and doesn’t care. I think many in the political world would prefer to see our cars go away altogether.

One particular concern of mine regards Studebakers in general and Avanti’s specifically. What will happen when the vendors we’ve come to know and depend upon for parts and services such as rebuilding parts eventually retire and pass away? Will there be others waiting to take their place and continue the businesses? Look at the fears when SASCO announced they were closing...we’re quite fortunate that Studebaker International had the ability...both financial and physically, to make a deal for SASCO’s inventory or all could have been scrapped and lost forever. What happens when Dan and Betty Booth want to retire...or Jon Myers? Jon has his son Mike to take it on down the road, but not everyone does. Many family businesses never seem to go past the second generation before dying off as the younger generations have difference interests and take a different path in life.

As time goes by and along with the generational shifts, will we be able to find those interested in Studebakers and Avanti’s to the same degree we are? We need “replacement” owners down the road. I’ve run into many at car shows or cruise-ins who have never heard of a Studebaker or an Avanti. I’ve heard “Is it Italian, is it French, is it a Corvette, is it a Cadillac?” People just don’t know as our cars are completely out of their realm of life experiences.

One of my hopes is to share my enthusiasm enough to get at least some people interested enough to maybe buy an Avanti down the road...whether to save and rebuild one or buy one ready to drive and enjoy. I would like to see every Avanti that can be saved get saved, although I understand the need for donor cars. While we do enjoy a cottage industry of sorts reproducing some Avanti parts, it’s miniscule compared to the reproduction market for Corvettes, Camaro’s, Mustangs, Chevelles and Mopars.

Some of the suggestions offered are certainly worth considering and discussing. Changes such as alternative fuel power sources will require a sea change in how purists look at cars and what’s allowable in concours judging. Rules may have to change or the show fields will be full of increasing numbers in the modified classes and fewer in original classes. We might find fewer cars even available for collectors as owners declining to make such changes, due to costs and the cars then rot away from lack of anyone interested in them anymore.

I think most fears we’ve had have been proven to be less than advertised. We’ve generally overcome them...with ingenuity, dedicated members, technological advancements, etc. The future may well find such problem solving far too difficult and expensive...I have no idea on that.

I still think the biggest obstacle we face...at least short term, is the free market. If we can find a way to increase visibility and demand, then values increase, availability of parts can increase as potential suppliers see a market to service. The external forces such as regulations down the road have other marques to share finding solutions, the aftermarket suppliers to help and industry associations as well. As an organization, the AOAI (and the SDC) may be able to take a stand and support the big organizations with letters to regulators, but admittedly, I don’t have any idea of what restrictions there might be on organizations such as the AOAI under the tax codes for lobbying.

Sorry to make this so long, but a number of issues were brought up. I hope to see other replies. My opinions and concerns are simply mine...others can agree or disagree. I have no problem with that...a healthy discussion is what’s good...for us as Avanti owners and the hobby in general.

[Twnchgr]

I still think the biggest obstacle we face...at least short term, is the free market. If we can find a way to increase visibility and demand, then values increase, availability of parts can increase as potential suppliers see a market to service. The external forces such as regulations down the road have other marques to share finding solutions, the aftermarket suppliers to help and industry associations as well. As an organization, the AOAI (and the SDC) may be able to take a stand and support the big organizations with letters to regulators, but admittedly, I don’t have any idea of what restrictions there might be on organizations such as the AOAI under the tax codes for lobbying.

Sorry to make this so long, but a number of issues were brought up. I hope to see other replies. My opinions and concerns are simply mine...others can agree or disagree. I have no problem with that...a healthy discussion is what’s good...for us as Avanti owners and the hobby in general.

Very well put. I agree with every thing you typed..

[Peter Miller]

Gunslinger, thank you for your comments. I think we can all glean a lot of important information from your insights.

Do you foresee orphan brands as particularly susceptible to the changing dynamic of the collector car hobby? By this I mean will the Ferraris, Corvettes, Mustangs, that are iconic today remain as such, thus maintaining their collectibility and monetary value even as brands like Avanti, Kaiser, Hundson, and Stutz are forgotten after the cost of maintenance begins to exceed value to all but the most romantic of collectors in just a few decades from now?

I'm just curious as to what depth and extent other expect the hobby to change, but also what others perceive as particularly powerful alternatives to these expectations.

BTW Gunslinger, would you be interested in writing one of the future E-Newsletters?

[Gunslinger]

I do think orphan brands are at the greater risk to changing dynamics in the hobby down the road. The reproduction industry for cars is geared towards the most popular marques and models...no business wants to service a market that either doesn't exist or is so small that it makes the investment of credit, money and time has little to no chance of seeing a reasonable return. With cars like Corvettes (full disclosure...I own a '69 Corvette), Mustang, Chevelle, Camaro, B or E body Mopars, about all you need is a VIN plate, and either at Carlisle or through catalogs you can literally build a car around it. That's little exaggeration, as new frames, sub-frames, complete bodies, etc., are available today for those cars. We can't say the same for our Avanti's, with few exceptions. We have to rely on donor cars, talented owners, a few dedicated vendors and our own ingenuity to keep our cars viable.

Look at the tire market for older cars...even tires for 1960's and '70s muscle cars are more or less obsolete and there are fewer choices on the market for them. Tire makers only make occasional runs of them rather than continuous production, and spot shortages of certain sizes happen. As time goes by, the big tire makers will discontinue more and more tire lines that are not fast moving. Of course, small, specialty companies like Coker and Diamondback will fill in the gap for that market, but since the market is smaller, higher production costs runs up the retail price of the tire. You can go to many old car forums such as the SDC forum and find many discussion threads on tires, modern interchanges (if any are available), and where to find them. Retail costs are a major gripe...understandable, but the reality is no one will make them if they can't get a reasonable return on the investment...that's capitalism and we're all better off for it.

Back to the immediate issue...as we age, there may be a glut of sorts of orphan cars on the market as we pass on and fewer people are interested in owning our cars. Values will suffer and the cars themselves will suffer when they're not wanted. As an example, last summer I was at a cruise in and there was a Kaiser Manhattan...when was the last time you saw one of those? An extraordinarily well maintained original car...but how many people know what a Kaiser is much less have a desire for one? About the only thing people today know about Kaiser is Kaiser Permanente or maybe that Kaiser once owned Jeep. The fellow who owns that Manhattan may well be the last owner who really cares for it.

As you said...when the cost of ownership exceeds the fun value, the hobby will suffer. Maybe some of these orphan makes will find their way into the street rod or resto-mod category, which might save the car from destruction, there's still something sad about losing the history, individuality, and often just plain neat factor associated with these cars.

I'm hoping that we'll never see the day when the last two Avanti owners get together with the last two drivable Avanti's for one last drink and say "It's been a good run!"

Peter...I could write something for the e-newsletter if you like. I guess it depends on the topic. We can chat off-line about it if you like.